Employment Disruption in an AI Impacted Economy

The projection landscape reveals broad institutional consensus on direction but significant divergence on magnitude. Peer-reviewed research from the Yale Budget Lab finds “no discernible disruption” in aggregate labor market data through late 2025, with occupational mix changing only approximately 1 percentage point faster than during internet adoption. This finding is corroborated by Vanguard’s December 2025 analysis of 140 AI-vulnerable occupations showing “no evidence that AI-exposed roles are experiencing lower employment.”

Yet institutional surveys paint a different picture of selective disruption. The World Economic Forum’s Future of Jobs Report 2025, surveying 1,000+ companies across 55 economies, projects that 22% of all jobs will experience structural change by 2030, with 40% of current skills becoming outdated. McKinsey estimates up to 30% of US work hours could be automatable by 2030—a time line accelerated by generative AI’s emergence.